An Essay: Putin's Cold War nostalgia and suicidal instinct become a recipe for global war
The result? Thousands of deaths, refugee migration, a devastating oil and gas deficit and, perhaps ultimately, the collapse of European financial markets setting up financial collapse.
Vladimir Putin and his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last December. The Russian head of state authorized the expected invasion of Ukraine Monday and it launched early Tuesday. (Photo Illustration:Timothy Shore/Reuters) _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Vladimir Putin seems to be very nostalgic for the times when only two categories defined to nations, their leaders and their people were registered in the world sphere: Good and Bad.
Communism, Fascism, totalitarianism ― all bad. Democracy, freedom, liberty, personal and human rights ―all good. the dictators and repressive regimes, it was flipped. For both sides, however, it was a bipolar globe, very simple. It was easy to distinguish friends from enemies.
Trained in the art of distrusting even his own comrades. Russian President Vladimir still strongly believes in that world. They were more romantic years, of apprenticeship, in which the rest of his colleagues from the KGB called him “Boy Volodya” ― an indecipherable mixture of English and Russian insult that is said to mean “a die-hard fool.”
With the fall of the Soviet Union, Putin was consigned to a small official residence in Dresden, East Germany to continue his training as a spy. When West and East Germany reunited, he was forced to return to a Russia he did not recognize. It was a Russia attempting to be a democracy under drunken but passionate patriot-President Boris Yeltsin, who stood on a tank to hold off old-line military units trying to arrest Mikhail Gorbachev and keep the Communists in power.
When Yeltsin observed the new Russian Constitution’s limit for two four-year terms, Putin managed to become the center of international attention by trying to revive that historical bipolarity, plucking on the nerves of the European population that had lived in fear of Russia for 70 years.
That continent will immediately suffer the devastating consequences of a land invasion should it spread beyond the borders of Ukraine: Thousands of deaths, refugee migration, a devastating oil and gas deficit worldwide and, perhaps ultimately, the collapse of European financial markets. World peace is threatened with Tuesday’s invasion of Ukraine.
It is more likely that full-scale invasion will occur, rather than Putin and Russia standing down now, satisfied with “defending the sovereignty” of two rogue Ukrainian provinces that declared independence Sunday.
Make no mistake, with any significant resistance from the Ukraine military ― and there will be strong resistance ― Putin is ready to send the rest of those 190 thousand troops now surrounding Ukraine into the country and lay waste to anything in front of them. A military power does not put that many troops on another nation’s border without having every intent of using them.
Last-minute “talks” were completely ineffective. A summit proposed by Joe Biden, providing Russia did not invade, was accepted in principle by Putin, who knew full well the invasion was only hours away.
Despite his fearsomeness, it is his desire for war, the reestablishment of the old Soviet Empire, death and suicide ― in reality, the irrational fear those beliefs and attibutes exemplify in him ― drive the Russian head of state.
NATO members Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania fear they are Putin’s next targets. An invasion of those countries would certainly mark the start of a full-fledged European land war, as the treaty organization, including the United States, would be obligated to defend the sovereign territories of its member.
Even normally reliable intelligence information, such as that from the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, failed to see the current scenario developing. Briefs shared among NATO powers as late as Friday, February 18, indicated Russia would invade mainly from the Ukrainian north, thanks to the friendly services of Belarus, governed by dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
From Belarus, the intelligence briefs confidentally stated, Putin’s forces would cross the northern border of Ukraine to besiege Kyiv after subduing it with strategic bombing and artillery fire. The southern peninsula and the Russian border would also be key in the maneuvers.
The breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in easter Ukraine became Putin’s excuse to invade, claiming he was “protecting their sovereignty.” The darker orange is the territory east of the Ukrainian military’s “line of contact,” the absolute limit they are going to allow Russian advance without a full military response. (Map by David Welsh/America’s Conservative Voice) _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
None of them saw coming the declarations of eastern Ukraine provinces Donetsk and Luhansk as “people’s republics” independent of Ukraine. Those announcements came simultaneously late Sunday and by Monday evening Russian time, Putin had recognized them as constitutional nations.
Moscow had obviously already mobilized those 190 thousand soldiers to surround Ukraine with armored vehicles, ships and planes beginning as far back as August 2021. Ukraine, the elusive pearl that Putin is trying slowly to append by regions ― Crimea, now Donetsk, Luhansk ― is in danger of being fully annexed by Russia by military force.
He then gave a lengthy rambling speech Monday evening on Russian television and radio laying out his own warped view of history. He embraced the old Communist lie of an historical commonality between Russia and Ukraine, at one point calling them “inseparable” ― a vision most Ukrainians do not share. He claimed Russia “defined the modern borders” or Ukraine, which is another lie.
As far back as 400 years, Ukraine has remained more or less defined by its current borders. When Russian Premier Mikhail Gorbachev released the satellite nations of the Soviet Union to their own devices, he restored Ukraine to the same borders it had prior to World War I.
Putin’s speech, therefore, made it obvious the invasion was near at hand.
Like clockwork, the invasion began somewhat benignly, with Russian troop transports, tanks and attack helicopters breeching the border into the breakaway provinces without much conflict. There was sporadic gunfire but Ukraine appeared to be awaiting confronting the Russians at a “contact line” about 40 miles from the border with Crimea ― a line heavily fortified and bristling with Urkainian troops and armament.
Should heavy fighting break out, which seems imminent, the former intelligence agent may have entered a tunnel from which he does not soon see an exit. An open war would not only generate a barrage of deaths among his troops, but also a sky-high cost for the Kremlin’s treasury.
Putin can no longer count on increased gas revenues from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Germany Tuesday, following the invasion, announced it would not certify the gas supply line, built by Russian state-owned natural gas company Gasprom, for operation.
Perhaps Putin will achieve the fall of the Ukrainian capital relatively quickly, but the people of that country will not easily submit to the change of flag. They have purchased automatic weapons and begun training weeks ago in order to support their military for the inevitable invasion.
Ukraine citizens have never failed to defend their country. They banded together during World War II to fight against Soviet Russia, their puppet master at the time, mirroring the efforts of Free France against the Nazis. Thousands of civilians poured out of Western and Central Ukraine to join the fight in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea.
Push coming to shove, how long will the Russian people put up with their sons and daughters coming home in body bags, not mollified by the fact even more body bags will be filled with Ukrainian bodies, without Moscow giving public honors to those who perish? Most certainly, Putin will try to hide casualties while he can so as not to lose the psychological battle ― either at home or in Ukraine.
In his main analysis this week, The Economist’s Nigel Davison said it was clear Putin hopes to achieve some circumstantial advantages in this escalation ― such as temporarily halting talks aimed at curbing systematic persecution of opposition leaders. Davidson specifically mentioned the fate of Alexei Nalvany, who was sentenced to 10 years in prison simply for opposing Putin and his government.
The Russian chief could potentially suffer other considerable long-term defeats: A renewed cohesion and unity of the West like it has not happened in years. Tuesday, European nations and the U.S. coalesced in unity against Russia, enacting several economic penalties against Russia, its banks, its individual members of government and the billionaire oligarchy.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO troops have been put on alert and U.S. troops stationed in Europe are moving to shore up defenses in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania in the event of a Russian invasion. (Photo: Edward Shultze/der Weit) _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
“Although all eyes are on Putin, he has galvanized his opponents,” warned Davidson. “led not by Joe Biden ― who once called him a “murderer” and surely loathes the man he falsely believes tried to deny him the presidency ― but by European leaders, who will more immediately feel the threat of Russia when Russia invades Ukraine. Biden is leading from behind, following the example of his European counterparts.”
Davidson also recounted Biden’s foolish “minor incursion” remark at a media briefing held just days before his article was published. It has been cited worldwide as a major foreign policy error that encouraged Putin to carrry out the invasion.
NATO has found renewed purpose in protecting its Russian-facing flanks. Sweden and Finland, which have always preferred to keep their distance, may even join the alliance in the face of Putin’s aggression. Finland Monday departed from its traditional neutrality in condemning “Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty,” as declared a statement from the office of Finnish President Kaarlo Ståhlberg.
For its part, though refusing certification of Nord Stream 2, Germany remains beholden to Russia, continuing to take oil and gas delivery through Nord Stream 1, which passes through Ukrainian territory. Thwarting the intent of curbing Russian natural gas revenues, following the fate of Nord Stream 2 being sealed, China entered into a 30-year agreement with Gasprom to supply natural gas to the communist nation.
Sanctions will only be effective if Biden reopens Keystone XL and begins exports to Europe. Germany would then be able to cut off that pipeline as well. Biden steadfastly refuses to take such rational action.
Facing a war will mean a monumental mobilization of money and resources for Russia. With sufficient funds to prolong a war uncertain for now, Russia can no longer depend on deriving war chest funds from oil and gas. European countries are actively looking for other supplies.
For their part, Ukrainians will never accept being governed by a country they automatically hate, even more so now that Putin’s forces have invaded. It will take several generations for that to happen ― if it ever happens, which is unlikely. All these contingencies must be calculated in the billions of dollars that which Putin does not now have and has very little hope of acquiring.
The sanctions being levied, not only on Putin and his officers but also on his powerful billionaire friends, may exacerbate what is for now Putin’s shortage of funds.
Biden Tuesday announced sanctions on Russian sovereign debt, cutting off access to Western banks and the World Monetary Fund. He also said he was sanctioning Russia’s largest bank, VEB, and the Russian military bank. Neither will have the ability to transfer or borrow and lend funds in the West, a severe blow to Russia’s ability to interact financially with the rest of the world.
It may be too little too late, however, as Russian ratings agency ACRA estimates that the country's banks imported $5 billion worth of banknotes in foreign currencies in December, up from $2.65 billion a year before, in a pre-emptive step in case of the sanctions similar to those put in place today.
The actions of the U.S. Treasury and European central banks may compromise the business of Russian state companies and even bankrupt some. The Russian banking system and the oligarchs who run them will be subject to runs by the public on those banks and public demands ― and perhaps those of Russian media ― the billionaires pay back what they have stolen.
It is almost certain, however, that those banks, investment houses and individuals have put aside massive reserves they will be forced to surrender to Putin’s war effort.
Moscow is said to fear that what many see as the most drastic of the “red buttons” will be triggered: Excluding the nation from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT). Entrepreneurs who enjoy their yachts, their properties and strolling around Paris, London and New York will see their credit cards canceled outside of Russia and will no longer be able to enjoy the life of little czars they have built for themselves.
It is unlikely Putin gives any care to billionaires having their lifestyle curtailed, however. In fact, he will welcome it as that allows him to confiscate those billions suddenly unspendable abroad.
Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and China’s Xi Jinping, pictured in Vladivostok in May 2018, are even closer as of Tuesday. Following Germany’s refusal to certify the Nord Stream 2, China immediately entered into a 30-year agreement for Gasprom to supply gas to the communist nation. (Photo: Danielle l’Pierre/Reuters) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Perhaps, in the head of the man born in St. Petersburg 69 years ago, the idea germinated that Chinese dictator-President Xi Jinping could be his financier. That is entirely possible and could definitely prolong war in Ukraine and encourage Putin to be more aggressive toward the rest of Eastern Europe.
The downside is that dependence on Xi and China could become absolute and would constitute a historical risk: The Chinese Communist Empire would swallow Russia in one bite and without war. That would not sit well with the other members of the Kremlin, who remain as the Soviet Politburo was: Angry, powerful, self-interested bureaucrats.
Moreover, it would leave a giant military powerhouse sitting atop the world, able to strike anywhere in it within mere hours.
That threat may enable Beijing to be unworried about its own fronts to attend to that would otherwise preclude lending money to Russia to prosecute a European war. Chinese President Xi Jinping will undoubtedly use the West’s attention to a Europe in flames as an excuse to take Taiwan, which Communist China has always considered a rebel province.
It is the reason that sensitive information has circulated in military intelligence circles for the last year. U.S. agencies regard the likelihood of China taking advantage of such an invasion as “inevitable.” China has violated Taiwanese airspace with mutliple military flights almost daily for nearly two years in order to intimidate the Free Chinese. An attack on Taiwan by mainland Communist China would be as in Putin’s attack on Kyiv ― a lightning blow, devastating in terms of human lives.
Faced with this aggression, other Asian powers would be forced to mobilize. Japan, India and The Philippines would have to act to contain the advance of the Chinese regime before those nations became Xi’s targets. The oft-forgotten Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) ― a Pacific version of NATO ― would pull the U.S. into that conflict. An outbreak over Taiwan’s independence almost certainly would draw U.S. into the conflict before SEATO could even meet.
Australia, an ally of the United States despite its plunge into dictatorial governance during the CCP virus pandemic, would join the efforts to defend the democratic island because China, being even more opportunistic than Russia under Putin, would likely threaten the Land Down Under soon after “quelling the rebellion” of Taiwan.
For now, all that is a frightening hypothesis only, but could rapidly become the world’s reality.
Faced with worldwide conflict, Latin America must categorically position itself against history. The dictatorships of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua ― financed by China ― will take action to spread their own brands of Communism to the rest of Central and South America. The U.S. will be unable to fight a three-front war but will be morally obligated to defend South America’s democracies.
Unfortunately, it may be futile. Most of those free countries are heavily socialist and seem to have already chosen their allies. Democracies like Brazil and Argentina have been uncannily close to Russia and China of late. Whether that is for commercial reasons, economic and business considerations or for political attraction is a complex question to answer, and it likely is a combination of all three.
The bottom line is the United States, Canada, Mexico and Western Europe, as well as that previously named handful of Asian nations, will end up with few friends. With the entire world sitting wrapped in a mystery of diplomacy, political intrigue and military uncertainty, the ethereal and fearsome phrase, “a thousand years of darkness” looms upon us.
Therefore, we are right to fear the mystery, intrigue and uncertainly will soon ― at the very least ― coalesce into World War III, and that worse will follow.
Mike Nichols is an advocate of the counterrevolution with a four-step plan to defeat Leftist Fascism: We Organize. We Stand. We Resist. We Fight. He is a regular contributor to several conservative news websites and has a regular blog and Facebook presence at Americas Conservative Voice-Facebook.